Venture Capital Evaluation Methods Need Rethinking: Abandon the 'Home Run' Obsession
An early-stage investor points out that current venture capital evaluation methods focus excessively on 'home run' successes, which not only increases risk and distorts deal portfolios but also dooms ninety percent of projects to failure. The article calls for a reexamination of investment logic, shifting toward more pragmatic 'double' or 'triple' value creation.
As an investor who frequently engages with early-stage project roadshows, my colleagues and I are increasingly inclined to believe that the current methods used to evaluate venture capital (VC) projects, as well as the roadshow formats shaped by them, and even the business models ultimately fostered, all require fundamental change. My core dissatisfaction lies in the fact that roadshows are typically meticulously designed, and deals are often financed and managed around "home run"-style massive successes—this obsession with extreme returns, rather than more robust "base hits" or more valuable "triples," is intended to compensate for losses in nine out of ten deals.
However, this excessive pursuit of "home runs" actually brings multiple negative effects: it significantly increases investment risk, distorts the overall structure of available deals in the market, alters the presentation and management logic of startups, and almost inevitably dooms at least nine out of ten deals to failure. In my view, this approach wastes resources, consumes time, and yields low efficiency.
How do you view this phenomenon? Or is it merely that I am in a bad mood today, which has led to such a biased perspective?